Home price declines may be slowing

May 18th, 2009

Phoenix

The Phoenix Business Journal, May 18, 2009:
“Home price declines may be slowing”

Phoenix Home Values and House Prices as mentioned by zillow.com shows these number:

2000 : $105.000
2003 : $130.000
2006 : $249.000
2009 : $140.000 (april 2009)

The ASU-Repeat Sales Index, which measures changes in year-to-year average home prices, shows a record drop of 37 percent in the index from February 2008 to February 2009.

According to the ASU-RSI report, declining prices from February 2008 to February 2009 were ranged from 40 percent in Glendale to 16 percent in Tempe.
San Diego County

San Diego County home prices, sales numbers rise in April

More sales means higher or lower home prices?

January 2009: $280.000
April 2009: $290.000
The April median was still 27.5 percent below year-ago levels and off 44 percent from the all-time high of $517,500 in November 2005.

Single-family resale homes rose from a low of $319,000 in March to $325,000 in April. The latest median was 24.4 percent below April 2008’s $430,000.

Resale condos were up $2,000 to $182,000 from their low, also set in March, and down 39.3 percent from a year ago, when the median stood at $300,000.

A week earlier Roger Showley, Staff Writer for  the Union-Tribune had this headline:

San Diego home prices drop at quick pace

San Diego County home prices dropped 29.6 percent over the last year, twice the national rate, the National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday.

His statement is not really clear. The prices have dropped significantly could have been a better statement as the last few months the market is even up a 0.5%. Anyway nice how they tweak the numbers for you.

Statements/ conclusions

1. Who are you listing to now. The same “realtors” and other specialist who were (95% + of them) totally wrong with their forecast for home prices in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008. Ask for arguments, assumptions and 80% has no clue, guessing that is what they like.

2. The house prices in San Diego have dropped to a level where:
rent - buy a house starts making sense again (instead of paying 220% the price for owner a house compared with renting in early 206)

Income: not positive

Jobs/ new companies: not positive

People looking for a deal: yes, 5 ARM at 3.875% this week (conforming loan) makes it attractive to buy a home for 605 of the price it was in 2006.

Slow market?: Yes, I assume that currently lots of home owner with very limited or no or negative equity will stay in their house for longer than planned, especially when interest might be up to 7% - 8% in a few years (it does not make sense to move when the cost of the loan increase with 40% + due to higher interest rates.

The amount of home buyers will likely not extremely increase, as relatively many people bought already homes (see also how more people bought cars every 2.5 year instead of every 4 year….). Yes, and ofcourse the lovely interest rate also mean 20% + down. So, no 20% cash means no 4- 5% loan.

more discussion and information about San Diego Home Prices.


Home Prices in 2009

May 18th, 2009

The Phoenix Business Journal, May 18, 23009:
Home price declines may be slowing

Economic Growth: Halliburton

May 11th, 2009

March 24th, 2006

Halliburton stock soard after 9-11 but since went up 800% (approx $10 to $80), The war (war in Iraq) did them pretty well, also Katrina might have had positive impact on the stock.

Do we want a vice -president still owning stock in a company were he was involved with.

Most countries have very strict rules for the president and ministers. No involvement with any companies…

A president/ vice-president should be a very hard working job which should only pay reasonable and does not allow “extras” and stock/ involvement in companies….

Some companies make/made a lot of money with very well (over) paid jobs provided by the government. Companies like Halliburton often  got projects without bidding (with other competitors). That is were your tax money went.

Economic Growth USA ?

May 11th, 2009

March 24th, 2006 - re-listed

Economic growth?

The US economy is still growing? But what really grows. The GDP was in 2005 (estimated)
3.5% (compared with 2004). Tasking in account the GDP growth in 2001- 2004 also 1-4% average a year (source: www.bea.gov): has the average American 10% more to spend. What does economic growth mean. When “we” spend $120,000,000,000 a year in Iraq and Haliburton makes 4+ billion with contracts, does that mean GDP/ economic growth.
Yes/No is the answer. In my opinion, technically it does. Is this a good meassure of economic growth? I do not think so.
Economic growth has been good for Haliburton, Militairy Services/ goods provider, Companies related to George Bush “helping” Katrina (for 700% of the market price).
Is there Economic Growth for me, paying double the price for the same home, significant higher gas prices, less jobs, lower wages/ equal wages.
No, zero growth for the normal guy. Not even taking in account the level of the quality of life.
Shoes of at the airport, there is no money for infrastructure, there is no money for pensions….
 
They have done this by a combination of historic low interest rates, rates only seen before in times of war or depression, and by stimulating the economy by record budget deficit spending, issuing government bonds to finance it. The world has been flooded with cheap dollars as a result.

US household Income

May 10th, 2009

US household Income

Since 1975, practically all the gains in household income have gone to the top 20% of households.
Source: http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/us.html