New World Blog
SnapChat Stock - SNAP
Updated October 2017.
SNAP
(Snapchat):
After a tough beginning of the month October, the SNAP stock bounchses back to $16.50 (Market cap almost $20B), this is still almost 20% lower than in May 2017. No earnings and not exactly knowing when money might come in and how much, keeps this stock pretty fragile!
FB
(Facebook): FB stock keeps going strong at $174 (Market cap $504B), as P/E are running at approx 38 I would caution (again) as there are more threats than opportunities, and the cash cows advertsing money will become more pennyies on the dollar with significant higher employee costs etc.. Lower margins = lower profits = lower stock price, as growth might slow down significantly (who is expecting to spend MORE on their Facebook advertising next year?). most companies will focus on the getting better perfomance for their advertising dollars!
Updated May 2017.
The first week SNAP even makes it to $28 an dips to approx $19 and later in May hangs around the $20.
I would like to see some senarios. For example 4: based on assumptions, no comptetition, everything goes well, more conversion per user etc...
As currently I do not see any reason to throw $20 in for this fragile deal, as there is a huge change it hops to $4 and almost impossible to go (healthy growth?) to $80, as there are no profits (P/E?).
SnapChat stock a good idea?
Snap:
2015: Revenue $58.6 million - Net loss of $372.9 million
2016: Revenue $404.4 million - Net loss of$514.6 million
Revenue which very likely will keep growing for the next 1-3 years, but profits? No proof and information about why and how the advertising income would explode? Huge change that this SNAP might tank within months, or wait for 1-3 years as it might take a bit to conclude for stubborn investors to call it the day directly, including some large investors guaranteed to keep the stock for a minimal of a year after the IPO.
Good luck, I might choose to put my cash in boring GLD (Gold) for a bit.
SNAP IPO
March1, 2017:
Snap Prices I.P.O. at $17 a Share, Valuing Company at $24 Billion
SNAP simplified: small business makes $1mln and has $0.1mln profits, value this at this point (not assuming exceptional growth).
Based on $404mln revenue SNAP is valued at $24B ($24,000mln) roughly 60 times revenue with absolutely no profits in the short term.
That would put a profitable small business of $1mln revenue at $60mln value, kind of weird, at bit too much assuming everything goes straight to the extreme top and nothing goes wrong it seems!! Everything has go go very weel, no issues/ extra competittion and someway money has to be made with advertising.
Are you still using Snapchat in 2018?
Facebook Stock - FB
Update May, 2017
FB even made it up to $152.78 on May 2, 2017. Trump generating many concerning stories seem to get investors a few weeks laters to start considering other options (as many stocks seem to got to a pretty high price). GLD (Gold) etc seems to gain later in May as there is less confidence.
Update March, 2017
Facebook (FB stock) has had a good ride since May 2013. Initially the stock drop quite a bit but after that it kept going up upto $139 as of March , 2017.
FB has a Markt Cap of almost $400B with a Price/ Earnings Ratio of almost exact 40! Earnings of $10B mostly for advertising income.
Question: IS Facebook still significantly growing with new customers and more "sales"/ advertising dollars per customer? Or might the Facebook experience get a bit boring and Facebook users might limit their time on Facebook and also might look at other option. In my opinion, still steady growth, but not many more Opportunities but more Threats from many directions, less use per Facebook user, adverisers want better value for advertising (as effectiveness is not excellent for many advertisers), cost of customer service etc, alternative products to use, government and laws changing not in Facebook favor? Lots to think about when throwing a couple $K in FB stock as FB allready had a good ride and P/E 40 is not that attractive to jumpo in when it is not unlikely that the best years might be over!!
FB (Facebook) Mkt cap 394.61B - P/E ratio 39.56
Update May 14, 2013
FB.O on Nasdaq = $ 27.06 USD
Does the Price/Earning getting really better, still huge hump to cover...Do you like to "bet" your money on FACEBOOK "FB" expecting to get the P/E to 30 or even 20 (before to have to retire)?
Facebook compared to industry average:
| P/E (TTM): | 1,725.87 | 22.77 | 28.61 |
Reuters Analysts:
| 1-5 Linear Scale | Current | 1 Month Ago |
2 Month Ago |
3 Month Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) BUY | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 |
| (2) OUTPERFORM | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| (3) HOLD | 13 | 14 | 13 | 13 |
| (4) UNDERPERFORM | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| (5) SELL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| No Opinion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Update February 21, 2013
When can we expect "real" earnings?
Market Cap $67.8 Billion
| FB.O | Industry | Sector | |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM): | 1,927.01 | 21.26 | 23.63 |
Reuters Analysts:
Analyst Recommendations and Revisions
| 1-5 Linear Scale | Current | 1 Month Ago |
2 Month Ago |
3 Month Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) BUY | 10 | 14 | 13 | 12 |
| (2) OUTPERFORM | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| (3) HOLD | 13 | 11 | 10 | 10 |
| (4) UNDERPERFORM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| (5) SELL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| No Opinion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
February 21, 2013
------------------
2012
Facebook stock make soft landing after a week of declines at $32.00 - roughly 30% down from IPO price.
Google Finance FB | Reuters Finance FB
Stock - Investment
GRPN - Groupon Stock
February 9, 2012
Update after the "not surpising huge decrease in value" as mentioned in earlier articles regarding GRPN stock. The stock seems to hang around $5 - $5.50 where it found it balance. Almost 4B for a company which does not really make money and has got huge amount of competitors taking over parts of the market. Also do not forget that the product is not a very likely "repeat product".
Value: $5.35
Market Cap: 3.56B
P/E (ttm): N/A
EPS (ttm): -0.08
GRPN - Groupon Stock
September 1, 2012
Groupon keeps showing weakness on all levels. However I emphasize that the saturation of the market will be the biggest issue - It almost seems "everybody" is doing what Groupon does. Also to mention that their product will not have a huge repeat customers. Generalized the coupon would be good for most businesses to boost branding/ exposure and make limited direct return on investment.
Groupon's revenue from Groupon's international business fell 4 percent in the second quarter from the first. The international business accounted for about 54 percent of total revenue in the second quarter.
Barclays, thanks for the information, update on GRPN, and changing it a week later, what is that information really worth? (not too much changed that week)...
August 21, 2012
Barclays downgraded its recommendation on the shares to the equivalent of a sell, and lowered the price estimate to $4 from $15.
August 14, 2012
Barclays Downgrade Price Target for GRPN to $15 from $27
Facebook P/E (Price/ Earnings): 106 (Industry 19.23)
GRPN - Groupon Stock
August 2012
You never can be sure about stock, stock priices and the future, but as shown below, I knew from the very beginning that GRPN stock is not worth 20 billion dollars. (I like to make a million out of my garage, but this company has not the value of 20 billion. Does anyone (any of these great investor advisers gain their house to "bet" it
is at least 20% of the original stock price, say roughly $5. No, they do not!, I have not see any genius investor advisor (making 100k+ for a all the value advice) giving any promises, they talk the guess, let me know when you have anybody with real facts and forecast.
GRPN - Groupon Stock
March 2012
My first feeling was: That is a lot of money (roughly $18 Billion) valuing the company: Groupon, This newbee seems popular but why would I pay $20 a share for a company which does not make money AND not likely is going to make a lot...
My last statement: "Not likely to make a lot in the near future", I based on the assumptions:
The products/service provided, a coupon everyday is not a rocket science, the simple product offering makes it easy for competitors to get into the market. We already have seen in the last few months: Living Social, Google Deals, Union Tribune Deals (San Diego Newspaper), Travelzoo Local Deals, to name a few.
December 5, 2011
GRPN went mainly down and back up a bit: from $26 down to $16 and back to $20 now around $19.
Analyst opinion: 3 (average buy-sell)
GRPN News Update
March 16, 2012
Groupon UK told to clean up after record complaints
After an investigation that was started in December by the Office of Fair Trading — Britain’s equivalent of the Federal Trade Commission — the site was told that it had breached consumer regulations on a wide range of occasions and given a three month deadline to fix its wrongdoing, or face legal action.
Huffington Post: A British regulator says online deals site Groupon will change the way it markets its products after drawing criticism from consumers.
Nov 28, 2011
Groupon Korea fined for posting deceptive reviews
The Korea Herald
November 23, 2011
Another day of 2 digit drops for GRPN.